Remedy 2: Statistical estimation of typical co-location mismatch effects

Primary gap remedy type: 
Research
Proposed remedy description: 

An alternative to estimating co-location mismatch (the main missing term in the uncertainty budget decomposition of a comparison) from model simulations, is to employ statistical modelling on the differences, for instance with a heteroskedastic functional regression approach, (as implemented for instance in the STAT4COLL software package).  In certain applications, this approach also allows one to disentangle measurement uncertainties from co-location mismatch, at least for the random components. GAIA-CLIM will have employed such an approach for a subset of specific cases (spatial domains and ECVs / measurement techniques). Further efforts are required to generalise the approach and tools to enable broader exploitation, including integration into an operational validation context.

Relevance: 

Employ statistical modelling on the differences, for instance with a heteroskedastic functional regression approach. Efforts are required to generalise the GAIA-CLIM approach and tools to enable broader exploitation. 

Measurable outcome of success: 

At a high level, success is achieved when validation (and other comparison) results are published including a full uncertainty budget decomposition, taking into account spatiotemporal mismatch uncertainties. Or when they include a convincing demonstration that mismatch uncertainties are well below the measurement uncertainties and are therefore negligible. 

At a lower level, success is achieved if the statistical modelling allows one to close the uncertainty budget, i.e. the measured differences (or their statistics) are compatible with the sum of all uncertainty sources. Note that this requires reliable measurement uncertainties as well. 

Expected viability for the outcome of success: 
  • High
Scale of work: 
  • Single institution
  • Consortium
Time bound to remedy: 
  • Less than 3 years
Indicative cost estimate (investment): 
  • Medium cost (< 5 million)
Indicative cost estimate (exploitation): 
  • No
Potential actors: 
  • EU H2020 funding
  • Copernicus funding
  • National funding agencies
  • National Meteorological Services
  • ESA, EUMETSAT or other space agency
  • Academia, individual research institutes